Deductive AI sold after $1M ARR, team of 2–10 (reported)

01

How much did Deductive AI make, and what was it sold for?

Each row shows the evidence grade and the source numbers from the list at the end of this page. The grades are explained in How Aiolum verifies.

A two-founder AI SRE company that raised a seed round, came out of stealth in November 2025 and was bought by Elastic nine months later; the sale is confirmed by the buyer, the revenue and the price by one anonymous source
Fact	Value	Grade	How we know	Sources
Annual recurring revenue before the sale	about US$1 million	D	AI Chat Daily, 19 June 2026, by Jaeden Schafer: "DeductiveAI had reached approximately $1 million in annual recurring revenue before the sale, per the same source", the source being "a person with knowledge of the deal". Elastic and Deductive did not respond to the article, and no second source gives a revenue figure.	[1]
Reported price	up to US$85 million	D	AI Chat Daily, 19 June 2026: Elastic agreed to acquire DeductiveAI "for up to $85 million, according to a person with knowledge of the deal". The article does not say how much of it is fixed and what the rest depends on. Elastic's release, blog post and quarterly results give no price.	[1, 2, 3, 4]
Sale	agreement announced 22 July 2026; completed 24 August 2026	A	Elastic's blog post: "Elastic announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Deductive AI". Elastic's release of 24 August 2026: "Elastic (NYSE: ESTC) has completed the acquisition of Deductive AI". Its results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 (ended 31 July 2026) list "Acquired Deductive AI" under other business highlights.	[3, 2, 4]
Customers at the sale	existing customers, number not stated	A	Elastic: "Existing Deductive AI customers will continue to receive support while integration plans are developed."	[2, 3]
Reported price compared with the reported ARR	up to about 85 times	calc	Calculated: US$85 million divided by US$1 million. Both numbers are the grade D figures above; the multiple is an upper bound because the price is "up to".	[1]
Reported price compared with the seed valuation	up to about 2.6 times	calc	Calculated: US$85 million divided by the US$33 million seed valuation that AI Chat Daily reported (2.58). The article itself writes "roughly 2.6x its last private mark".	[1]
Seed round	US$7.5 million, led by CRV	C	Deductive's launch post, 12 November 2025: "led by Max Gazor at CRV, with participation from Databricks Ventures, Thomvest Ventures, and Primeset", plus angel investors including Ion Stoica, Ajeet Singh and Abhinav Asthana. AI Chat Daily repeats the amount.	[5, 1]
Seed valuation	US$33 million	D	AI Chat Daily only. The company's own post gives no valuation.	[1]
Founded	2023	D	AI Chat Daily: "founded in 2023". The Internet Archive copy of deductive.ai of 13 January 2022 is a Dan.com page, "The domain name deductive.ai is for sale", so no earlier product used the domain. The first readable product page in the archive is from 18 April 2024.	[1, 13]
Public launch	12 November 2025, out of stealth	C	Launch post: "We are excited to finally share what we have been building and to announce our launch out of stealth." It says the product was "already running in production".	[5, 9]
Founding team	2 co-founders: Rakesh Kothari (CEO) and Sameer Agarwal (CTO and CPO)	C	About page: "We (Rakesh and Sameer) worked at two pioneering companies, Databricks and ThoughtSpot, as early engineers". Elastic's blog post welcomes "cofounders Rakesh and Sameer".	[6, 3]
People listed on the About page, November 2026	9, including the 2 co-founders	C	Four founding engineers, a founding designer, an AI research engineer and a director of go-to-market, read on 8 November 2026. Elastic welcomed "the rest of the Deductive AI team" without a number.	[6, 3]
Starter price, April 2026	US$999 a month, month to month	C	Internet Archive copy of the pricing page, 16 April 2026. Enterprise: custom.	[8]
Named production users	DoorDash, Foursquare, Kumo AI	C	Customer stories on Deductive's blog, all dated 12 November 2025, and quotes with names and job titles on the home page. The stories do not say what the customers paid.	[9, 10, 7]
Datadog account cut off	15 December 2025; telemetry restored on Grafana Cloud within 48 hours	C	Deductive's post of 9 January 2026: Datadog put its account "under review" and deactivated its accounts and API keys. Deductive had used Datadog's APM "since February 2025" for its own systems. Datadog sells Bits AI, which the post calls "a direct competitor to Deductive".	[11]
Code sandbox for the agent	P99 allocation under 21 ms	C	Deductive's engineering post of 17 August 2026: the agent runs generated code in sandboxes built with gVisor and Cilium, with "P99 sandbox allocation under 21ms and command execution overhead under 10ms".	[12]
Company	Deductive AI, Inc., a Delaware corporation	C	Terms of service. Disputes go to courts in San Mateo County, California.	[15]
Time from public launch to the completed sale	9 months	calc	Calculated: 12 November 2025 to 24 August 2026 is 285 days, 9 calendar months.	[5, 2]

How to read this table: grade A is Elastic's own release, blog post or results statement. Grade C is Deductive's own pages and Internet Archive copies of them. Grade D is a figure reported by one news article that cites one unnamed person. An "X" value was computed on this page from the rows above it.

Deductive AI prices on 16 April 2026, read from an Internet Archive copy of the company's pricing page (grade C). On 8 November 2026 the live pricing page answered "Page Not Found", after the sale to Elastic
Plan	Per month, billed yearly (US$)	Per month, billed monthly (US$)	Limit
Starter		999	1,000 quick and 10 deep investigations, unlimited users, 1 workspace
Enterprise	custom	custom	limits set by incident volume, unlimited workspaces, BYOC, SSO, SLA

The Starter plan was sold month to month with "Cancel anytime"; the page gave no yearly price. Both plans included integrations with code editors (Cursor and Claude Code through MCP, the Model Context Protocol that lets an AI tool call outside services), Slack and Microsoft Teams. Enterprise added higher investigation limits, unlimited workspaces, single sign-on and role-based access, a service-level agreement, and bring your own compute (BYOC), where the agent runs in the customer's own cloud account.

02

When did Deductive AI launch, and how did it grow?

From a domain for sale in January 2022 to a purchase by Elastic in August 2026. Each entry carries its grade.

January 2022CThe domain deductive.ai is listed for sale on Dan.com, according to an Internet Archive copy. [13]
2023DRakesh Kothari and Sameer Agarwal found the company, according to AI Chat Daily. [1]
18 April 2024CThe first readable archived product page promises to "root cause any production incident" and "100x faster MTTR" (mean time to resolve). [13]
February 2025CDeductive starts to use Datadog's APM for its own production systems. [11]
12 November 2025COut of stealth with a US$7.5 million seed round led by CRV, as the company announced, and customer stories with DoorDash, Foursquare and Kumo AI. [5, 9]
15 December 2025CDatadog reviews and deactivates Deductive's accounts. The team moves its telemetry to an open-source stack on Grafana Cloud in under 48 hours and writes about it on 9 January 2026. [11]
16 April 2026CThe pricing page lists Starter at US$999 a month and Enterprise at a custom price. [8]
19 June 2026DAI Chat Daily reports, citing a person with knowledge of the deal, that Elastic agreed to buy Deductive for up to US$85 million and that Deductive had about US$1 million of ARR. [1]
22 July 2026AElastic announces an agreement to acquire Deductive AI, with no price. [3]
17 August 2026CDeductive publishes how its agents run generated code in gVisor sandboxes. [12]
24 August 2026AElastic completes the acquisition. Existing customers keep their support while integration plans are developed. [2]
27 August 2026AElastic's first-quarter results for fiscal 2027 list the acquisition among the quarter's highlights. [4]
8 October 2026AElastic announces "Elastic nightshift AI SRE". The headline read for this page does not say whether it uses Deductive's technology. [14]
8 November 2026Cdeductive.ai is still online with the banner "Deductive AI is joining forces with Elastic"; its pricing page answers "Page Not Found". [7, 8]

03

Why did Deductive AI work?

Four causes, in the order they mattered. Each one is a reusable lesson.

01

Founders from the data systems they debug

Both founders built large data platforms (Apache Spark at Databricks, the search and analytics engine at ThoughtSpot) and had debugged them as engineering leaders. AI Chat Daily wrote that this background explains the price: in its words, the buyer paid for the team and the agent architecture, not the revenue.

02

Hypotheses tested against evidence

The agent does not only list signals that changed at the same time. It builds a knowledge graph of services, code and dependencies, proposes causes, checks each one against traces and recent changes, and shows the evidence. In the DoorDash case study it traced a latency spike in an ads API to timeouts from an upstream machine-learning platform that was being deployed at the same time, and the engineers confirmed it in the logs and traces.

03

Named users before the announcement

The company came out of stealth with three customer stories and quotes from named engineering leaders at DoorDash and Foursquare. For a product that reads a customer's code and production data, named users in production are the proof that buyers ask for first.

04

A buyer that owns the telemetry

An AI SRE needs logs, metrics and traces. Elastic already stores them for its observability customers, so Deductive's investigation engine fits on top of data that Elastic holds. Datadog, the other large owner of such data, had cut Deductive off in December 2025 and sells its own competing agent.

How it was built

These details come from Deductive's own blog posts and pages (grade C) and Elastic's announcements (grade A). [7, 5, 2, 12, 11]

A knowledge graph of the customer's codebase, telemetry, engineering discussions and knowledge bases, which several agents query together during an investigation.
The launch post describes reinforcement learning, training by reward for actions that led to a correct result: the agents learn which investigation steps restored stability in past incidents. Elastic's release quotes its chief executive calling it a "reinforcement learning harness for root cause analysis".
Generated code runs in sandboxes isolated with gVisor, a user-space kernel, and Cilium network rules that block outgoing traffic by default, with sandbox allocation under 21 milliseconds at the 99th percentile.
Offered as SaaS or self-hosted; the company says it does not store customer data on its servers or train models for other customers on it.
Its own telemetry ran on Datadog from February 2025 until Datadog cut it off in December 2025, then on Prometheus, Tempo, Loki and Grafana Alloy with Grafana Cloud as the managed backend. The team used Cursor connected to Deductive through MCP during that move.
The sources read for this page do not name the language models or the model providers that the agents used.

Tools named in the sources

Each one opens its page in the Tools tab, with every story that uses it.

CursorC WebflowB gVisorC CiliumC KubernetesC DatadogC Grafana CloudC PrometheusC Grafana TempoC Grafana LokiC Grafana AlloyC

04

Who tried this before Deductive AI, and why did they fail?

Three companies in our database of failed startups promised to monitor production software or find errors faster and failed. The values below are from that database and are not independently verified.

Died 2003 to 2015Burned US$112M

OpTier

The promise

Monitor billions of IT and business transactions a day in real time.

Why it died

AppDynamics and New Relic moved faster to cloud-native monitoring, and its older architecture could not keep up.

Competition

Died 2011 to 2014Burned US$120K

Proxino

The promise

Real-time error detection and debugging for JavaScript applications.

Why it died

Sentry and other more complete error tools took the market, and it did not build a developer community.

Competition

Died 2012 to 2013Burned US$200K

Verelo

The promise

Website monitoring for downtime, malware and database connections from many locations.

Why it died

Larger monitoring services bundled the same checks, and too few businesses paid for a specialised tool.

Ran Out of Cash

The failed startups come from our database of 1,749 dead startups, retold here in our own words. Its entries are AI-assisted summaries of public sources, so these cards carry no evidence grade.

What changed

OpTier, Proxino and Verelo collected signals and showed them to people: transactions, errors, uptime checks. The engineer still had to read the dashboards and decide what had caused the problem, and each company competed with larger monitoring vendors that collected the same signals.

Deductive sold the step after the dashboard: the reasoning that an on-call engineer does to find the cause. Language models made it possible for a small team to build agents that read code, logs and traces together, and the founders had built data platforms at Databricks and ThoughtSpot. It also did not have to beat the large vendors: according to AI Chat Daily, one of them paid up to US$85 million for it after it reached about US$1 million of ARR.

05

Can one person copy Deductive AI now?

Not for one person without this background.

Deductive needed two founders with long records in distributed data systems, a seed round of US$7.5 million as the company announced, and enterprise customers willing to connect their production code and data. One person can still build a narrow version: an investigation agent for one stack or one kind of incident, sold to small teams, but the large observability vendors now sell their own agents.

Where it is still open: Investigation agents for stacks that the large vendors serve badly: data pipelines, machine-learning training jobs, mobile releases, and companies that cannot send their data to an outside cloud.

1Pick one kind of production failure that engineers debug by hand every week, such as failed data pipelines or slow API endpoints.
2Connect the agent to the code and the telemetry together, and make it show the evidence for each conclusion.
3Run it in production at a few named companies before any announcement, and publish their stories.
4Keep the telemetry layer on open standards, so that no single vendor can switch the product off.

What could go wrong for Deductive AI?

The risks are the mirror image of the causes above.

What is not verified

The ARR of about US$1 million and the price of up to US$85 million rest on one article: AI Chat Daily of 19 June 2026, by Jaeden Schafer, which cites "a person with knowledge of the deal"; Elastic and Deductive did not respond to it. The US$33 million seed valuation rests on the same article. Elastic's announcement (22 July 2026), its completion release (24 August 2026) and its quarterly results (27 August 2026) confirm the purchase but give no price, and the article does not say which part of "up to" was fixed. A reader could look for the purchase price in Elastic's quarterly report (Form 10-Q) for the quarter ending 31 October 2026; this page did not read SEC filings.

Team size at the sale

Two co-founders started the company, and it raised outside funding. Its About page lists 9 people, and Elastic welcomed "the rest of the Deductive AI team" without a number. No source read for this page gives the headcount at the sale, so the team is shown as small with the listed count.

Competition

Firetiger, another story on this site, also built agents that investigate production incidents and was bought by Cursor in August 2026. AI Chat Daily names Resolve AI as a funded rival, which it reported at a US$1.5 billion valuation in April 2026; Datadog sells Bits AI, and Elastic itself announced "Elastic nightshift AI SRE" on 8 October 2026.

Dependence on platforms and model providers

Datadog deactivated Deductive's accounts in December 2025, which the company describes as cutting off its own production telemetry within minutes; it moved to an open-source stack on Grafana Cloud. The sources read for this page do not name the language models that the agents used, so the dependence on a model provider cannot be judged from them. The April 2026 pricing page listed integrations with Cursor and Claude Code through MCP.

The product after the sale

On 8 November 2026 the pricing page answered "Page Not Found" while the home page still offered demos. Elastic says existing customers continue to receive support while integration plans are developed; whether new customers can still buy Deductive on its own is not stated.

Placeholder text on the site

The home page testimonials carry leftover template labels ("Advanced User Segmentations", "Banners", "Hints"), and the changelog repeats one entry dated 11 October 2024 four times beside a "1.4.0" entry dated 30 September 2023. This page does not use the changelog dates as evidence.

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Sources

The grade next to each source is the best grade that the source can support. "Read in full" means that the text of the page was downloaded and the numbers were checked in it.

D AI Chat Daily, 19 June 2026, by Jaeden Schafer: Elastic agrees to buy DeductiveAI for up to $85M in AI SRE land grab
Read in full (downloaded by the pipeline's harvester on 8 November 2026). Source for the reported price, the ARR, the seed valuation and the founding year, all from one unnamed person with knowledge of the deal.
A Elastic press release, 24 August 2026: Elastic Completes Acquisition of Deductive AI
Read in full. The buyer's release on its investor-relations site: completion, the technology, the former CEO's quote and the support for existing customers. No price.
A Elastic Blog, 22 July 2026, by Baha Azarmi: Elastic and Deductive AI join forces to accelerate agentic incident investigation for engineering teams
Read in full. The buyer's announcement of the agreement and of the co-founders joining Elastic. No price.
A Elastic press release, 27 August 2026: Elastic Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results
Read the highlights and searched the whole release for Deductive. It lists "Acquired Deductive AI" and gives no price.
C Deductive AI blog, 12 November 2025: Introducing Deductive: The AI SRE for Fast Moving Teams
Read in full. The founders' launch post: background, reinforcement learning, the seed round and its investors.
C Deductive AI, About us
Read in full on 8 November 2026. Founding story and the list of 9 team members.
C Deductive AI home page
Read in full on 8 November 2026. Product description, deployment options, customer quotes and the Elastic banner.
C Deductive AI pricing page, Internet Archive copy of 16 April 2026
Read in full. The live page answered "Page Not Found" on 8 November 2026.
C Deductive AI blog index
Read in full on 8 November 2026. Titles and dates of all posts, including the three customer stories of 12 November 2025.
C Deductive AI blog, 12 November 2025: How DoorDash Powers a Reliable, High-Performance Ad Platform with Deductive AI
Read in full. Case study of one production incident; no money figures.
C Deductive AI blog, 9 January 2026: Datadog, Thank You for Blocking Us
Read in full. Source for the Datadog cut-off, the move to Grafana Cloud and the use of Cursor through MCP.
C Deductive AI blog, 17 August 2026: Building Secure Sandboxes for AI Agents
Read the introduction and the sections on the gVisor and Cilium choice.
C Internet Archive copies of deductive.ai, 13 January 2022 and 18 April 2024
Read both copies and the archive's capture list. The 2022 copy is a domain-sale page; the April 2024 copy (https://web.archive.org/web/20240418095538/https://www.deductive.ai/) is the first readable product page.
A Elastic investor relations, list of 2026 press releases
Read the 2026 list through the page's own data feed. Source for the dates and headlines of the Deductive releases and of the nightshift AI SRE announcement; the nightshift release itself was not read.
C Deductive AI, Terms of Service
Read the sections naming the company and the governing law.
C Database of failed startups, local export
Local export. AI-written summaries, not independently verified. Source for the failed predecessors.

Run this company? Send corrections or a verified figure to aiolum@livyden.com